EDGE
What is betting edge?
Estimated edge appears when the probability assessed by a model or analyst is higher than the threshold implied by the odds. If the market requires about 50% and the estimate is 57%, the difference is 7 percentage points. This does not guarantee that an individual bet will win.
Edge is not a guaranteed result
A bet with estimated edge can lose. Value is assessed over a meaningful sample of settled results.
Estimate quality
If probability is overestimated, the apparent edge disappears. Calibration and testing on new data are essential.
How Betty uses edge
Betty combines setup, score, odds, history and context to decide whether an estimated difference should be published.
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