What it means
A series with many pushes can show a high win rate if refunds are excluded from the denominator. That can describe the market correctly, but it is not enough to understand return or risk.
Measurement and evidence
Win rate, refunds and ROI are not the same thing
Win rate counts winning decisive results; ROI measures net profit against total stake. Refunds need separate reporting.
Example
In the prospectively linked IronBet 1H Over 1 sub-sample, there are 54 WIN, 0 LOSS and 60 REFUND outcomes. 54/(54+0) shows 100% among decisive outcomes only; 60 of 114 are still refunds.
Watch out for
For ROI you need every entry, real stakes, odds, every settlement and the same push/void definition. A percentage without a denominator is just a shiny sticker.
Educational content, not betting advice. Odds do not remove risk; check the operator's rules and stop if gambling is no longer fun or controlled.
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